The Coefficient6513OVRHome
Villarreal
- ATT
- 7114
- DEF
- 5912
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 6714
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Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain: UEFA Champions League, Nov 3, 2026
UEFA Champions LeagueHomeVillarreal6513OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayParis Saint-Germain8517OVR
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal, Spain
Team comparison
Ratings
- 7114Attack8617
- 5912Defence6914
- 6213Form9920
- 6714Elo strength9519
- 6513Overall8517
8517OVRAway
Paris Saint-Germain
- ATT
- 8617
- DEF
- 6914
- FRM
- 9920
- ELO
- 9519
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Villarreal (19th, 3 pts from 3) host PSG (1st, 9 pts from 3) in the Champions League table as it stands. Villarreal have scored 8 and conceded 8 in 3 Champions League games (2.7 and 2.7 per game). PSG have scored 14 and conceded 5 in 3 Champions League games (4.7 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Villarreal DLWWL, PSG WWWWW. The goals model expects about 2.6–3.0. PSG are slight favorites: Villarreal 35%, draw 17%, PSG 48%. The single most likely score is 2–3, but even that only has a 6% chance. Elo ratings (Villarreal 1559, PSG 1815) give Villarreal an expected score of 24%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Villarreal 2.61 · PSG 3.01 · most likely score 2–3 (6%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.50 / away 1.59 goals per game from 54 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Villarreal expected score 24%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Villarreal | PSG | |
|---|---|---|
| 19th | Table position | 1st |
| 3 (3) | Points (played) | 9 (3) |
| 1-0-2 | W-D-L | 3-0-0 |
| 2.67 | Goals for / game* | 4.67 |
| 2.67 | Goals against / game* | 1.67 |
| DLWWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWWWW |
| 1559 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1815 |
| 1.15 / 1.15 | Attack / defence index | 1.64 / 0.91 |
Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.