The Coefficient5812OVRHome
Manchester United
- ATT
- 6112
- DEF
- 6513
- FRM
- 357
- ELO
- 6814
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Manchester United vs AS Roma: UEFA Champions League, Nov 3, 2026
UEFA Champions LeagueHomeManchester United5812OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayAS Roma7716OVR
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Old Trafford, Manchester, England
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6112Attack7114
- 6513Defence6914
- 357Form9018
- 6814Elo strength8317
- 5812Overall7716
7716OVRAway
AS Roma
- ATT
- 7114
- DEF
- 6914
- FRM
- 9018
- ELO
- 8317
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Man Utd (21st, 3 pts from 3) host AS Roma (15th, 4 pts from 3) in the Champions League table as it stands. Man Utd have scored 5 and conceded 6 in 3 Champions League games (1.7 and 2.0 per game). AS Roma have scored 8 and conceded 5 in 3 Champions League games (2.7 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Man Utd LDLLL, AS Roma WWDWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Man Utd won 4, AS Roma won 1 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 2.1–1.8. Man Utd are slight favorites: Man Utd 44%, draw 21%, AS Roma 35%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (Man Utd 1575, AS Roma 1708) give Man Utd an expected score of 40%, which disagrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Man Utd 2.06 · AS Roma 1.81 · most likely score 2–1 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.50 / away 1.59 goals per game from 54 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Man Utd expected score 40%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Man Utd | AS Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| 21st | Table position | 15th |
| 3 (3) | Points (played) | 4 (3) |
| 1-0-2 | W-D-L | 1-1-1 |
| 1.67 | Goals for / game* | 2.67 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game* | 1.67 |
| LDLLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWDWW |
| 1575 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1708 |
| 0.91 / 0.99 | Attack / defence index | 1.15 / 0.91 |
Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Man Utd 4 wins · 0 draws · AS Roma 1 win
- AS Roma 3–2 Manchester United
- Manchester United 6–2 AS Roma
- AS Roma 2–3 Manchester United
- AS Roma 2–3 Manchester United
- Manchester United 1–0 AS Roma