The Coefficient7615OVRHome
Barcelona
- ATT
- 7916
- DEF
- 6513
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 9519
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Barcelona vs Aston Villa: UEFA Champions League, Nov 3, 2026
UEFA Champions LeagueHomeBarcelona7615OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayAston Villa7916OVR
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona, Spain
Team comparison
Ratings
- 7916Attack8217
- 6513Defence7816
- 7114Form7615
- 9519Elo strength8116
- 7615Overall7916
7916OVRAway
Aston Villa
- ATT
- 8217
- DEF
- 7816
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 8116
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Barcelona (8th, 6 pts from 3) host Aston Villa (2nd, 9 pts from 3) in the Champions League table as it stands. Barcelona have scored 11 and conceded 6 in 3 Champions League games (3.7 and 2.0 per game). Aston Villa have scored 12 and conceded 3 in 3 Champions League games (4.0 and 1.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Barcelona WWLLW, Aston Villa WWWLD. The goals model expects about 2.6–2.3. Barcelona are slight favorites: Barcelona 46%, draw 18%, Aston Villa 36%. The single most likely score is 2–2, but even that only has a 7% chance. Elo ratings (Barcelona 1811, Aston Villa 1686) give Barcelona an expected score of 74%, which agrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Barcelona 2.60 · Aston Villa 2.33 · most likely score 2–2 (7%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.50 / away 1.59 goals per game from 54 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Barcelona expected score 74%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Barcelona | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 8th | Table position | 2nd |
| 6 (3) | Points (played) | 9 (3) |
| 2-0-1 | W-D-L | 3-0-0 |
| 3.67 | Goals for / game* | 4.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game* | 1.00 |
| WWLLW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWWLD |
| 1811 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1686 |
| 1.40 / 0.99 | Attack / defence index | 1.48 / 0.74 |
Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in the data feed.