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Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich: UEFA Champions League, Nov 3, 2026

UEFA Champions League
HomeAtlético Madrid7415OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayBayern Munich8016OVR

Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain

Team comparison

Ratings

7415OVRHome

Atlético Madrid

ATT
5712
DEF
7816
FRM
9018
ELO
7916
  • 5712Attack7716
  • 7816Defence6914
  • 9018Form8116
  • 7916Elo strength9820
  • 7415Overall8016
ATTDEFFRMELO
Atlético Bayern
8016OVRAway

Bayern Munich

ATT
7716
DEF
6914
FRM
8116
ELO
9820

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Atlético (16th, 4 pts from 3) host Bayern (14th, 5 pts from 3) in the Champions League table as it stands. Atlético have scored 4 and conceded 3 in 3 Champions League games (1.3 and 1.0 per game). Bayern have scored 10 and conceded 5 in 3 Champions League games (3.3 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Atlético WWDWW, Bayern WDWWD. In the last 5 meetings on record, Atlético won 1, Bayern won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.9–1.6. Atlético are slight favorites: Atlético 45%, draw 22%, Bayern 32%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Atlético 1674, Bayern 1838) give Atlético an expected score of 35%, which disagrees with the goals model. Small sample warning: one side has only 3 Champions League games this season, so these numbers lean heavily on competition averages.

Data outlook

Atlético winDrawBayern win

Expected goals (model): Atlético 1.87 · Bayern 1.56 · most likely score 1–1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.50 / away 1.59 goals per game from 54 Champions League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Atlético expected score 35%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

AtléticoBayern
16thTable position14th
4 (3)Points (played)5 (3)
1-1-1W-D-L1-2-0
1.33Goals for / game*3.33
1.00Goals against / game*1.67
WWDWWForm, last 5 (all comps)WDWWD
1674Elo rating (pre-match)1838
0.83 / 0.74Attack / defence index1.31 / 0.91

Table: current Champions League standings. *Champions League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Atlético 1 win · 1 draw · Bayern 3 wins

  • Atlético Madrid 1–1 Bayern Munich
  • Bayern Munich 4–0 Atlético Madrid
  • Bayern Munich 1–0 Atlético Madrid
  • Atlético Madrid 1–0 Bayern Munich
  • Bayern Munich 2–1 Atlético Madrid