The Coefficient5311OVRHome
Sassuolo
- ATT
- 6413
- DEF
- 5110
- FRM
- 357
- ELO
- 5712
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Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: Serie A, Nov 2, 2026
Serie AHomeSassuolo5311OVR
Kick-off 11:30 AM CT
AwayFiorentina5411OVR
Monday, November 2, 2026 · 11:30 AM CT · Mapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia, Italy
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6413Attack5712
- 5110Defence5211
- 357Form4810
- 5712Elo strength5812
- 5311Overall5411
5411OVRAway
Fiorentina
- ATT
- 5712
- DEF
- 5211
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 5812
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Sassuolo (15th, 8 pts from 9) host Fiorentina (17th, 5 pts from 9) in the Serie A table as it stands. Sassuolo have scored 14 and conceded 22 in 9 Serie A games (1.6 and 2.4 per game). Fiorentina have scored 11 and conceded 21 in 9 Serie A games (1.2 and 2.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Sassuolo LDLLL, Fiorentina WLLLD. In the last 5 meetings on record, Sassuolo won 2, Fiorentina won 2 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 2.1–1.8. Sassuolo are slight favorites: Sassuolo 46%, draw 21%, Fiorentina 33%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (Sassuolo 1470, Fiorentina 1481) give Sassuolo an expected score of 57%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Sassuolo 2.15 · Fiorentina 1.80 · most likely score 2–1 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.63 / away 1.57 goals per game from 93 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Sassuolo expected score 57%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Sassuolo | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 15th | Table position | 17th |
| 8 (9) | Points (played) | 5 (9) |
| 2-2-5 | W-D-L | 1-2-6 |
| 1.56 | Goals for / game* | 1.22 |
| 2.44 | Goals against / game* | 2.33 |
| LDLLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLLLD |
| 1470 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1481 |
| 0.98 / 1.39 | Attack / defence index | 0.82 / 1.34 |
Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Sassuolo 2 wins · 1 draw · Fiorentina 2 wins
- Fiorentina 0–0 Sassuolo
- Sassuolo 3–1 Fiorentina
- Fiorentina 5–1 Sassuolo
- Sassuolo 1–0 Fiorentina
- Sassuolo 1–3 Fiorentina