The Coefficient6814OVRHome
Lorient
- ATT
- 4910
- DEF
- 8517
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 6313
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Lorient vs Brest: Ligue 1, Nov 2, 2026
Ligue 1HomeLorient6814OVR
Kick-off 1:45 PM CT
AwayBrest6213OVR
Monday, November 2, 2026 · 1:45 PM CT · Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Lorient, France
Team comparison
Ratings
- 4910Attack7014
- 8517Defence6513
- 7615Form5311
- 6313Elo strength5611
- 6814Overall6213
6213OVRAway
Brest
- ATT
- 7014
- DEF
- 6513
- FRM
- 5311
- ELO
- 5611
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Lorient (10th, 12 pts from 8) host Brest (13th, 9 pts from 8) in the Ligue 1 table as it stands. Lorient have scored 7 and conceded 6 in 8 Ligue 1 games (0.9 and 0.8 per game). Brest have scored 14 and conceded 12 in 8 Ligue 1 games (1.8 and 1.5 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Lorient LWWWD, Brest LDWDL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Lorient won 1, Brest won 3 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.1–1.0. Lorient are slight favorites: Lorient 40%, draw 30%, Brest 31%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 14% chance. Elo ratings (Lorient 1524, Brest 1461) give Lorient an expected score of 67%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Lorient 1.14 · Brest 0.97 · most likely score 1–0 (14%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.66 / away 1.37 goals per game from 76 Ligue 1 games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Lorient expected score 67%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Lorient | Brest | |
|---|---|---|
| 10th | Table position | 13th |
| 12 (8) | Points (played) | 9 (8) |
| 3-3-2 | W-D-L | 2-3-3 |
| 0.88 | Goals for / game* | 1.75 |
| 0.75 | Goals against / game* | 1.50 |
| LWWWD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LDWDL |
| 1524 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1461 |
| 0.69 / 0.63 | Attack / defence index | 1.11 / 0.99 |
Table: current Ligue 1 standings. *Ligue 1 games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Lorient 1 win · 1 draw · Brest 3 wins
- Brest 2–0 Lorient
- Lorient 3–3 Brest
- Lorient 0–1 Brest
- Brest 4–0 Lorient
- Lorient 2–1 Brest