The Coefficient8617OVRHome
Benfica
- ATT
- 9118
- DEF
- 7816
- FRM
- 8517
- ELO
- 8918
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Benfica vs Alverca: Primeira Liga, Nov 2, 2026
Primeira LigaHomeBenfica8617OVR
Kick-off 2:15 PM CT
AwayAlverca6513OVR
Monday, November 2, 2026 · 2:15 PM CT · Estádio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal
Team comparison
Ratings
- 9118Attack6714
- 7816Defence6313
- 8517Form7114
- 8918Elo strength5812
- 8617Overall6513
6513OVRAway
Alverca
- ATT
- 6714
- DEF
- 6313
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 5812
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Benfica (2nd, 22 pts from 9) host Alverca (10th, 11 pts from 9) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Benfica have scored 26 and conceded 8 in 9 Primeira Liga games (2.9 and 0.9 per game). Alverca have scored 13 and conceded 13 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.4 and 1.4 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Benfica LWWWW, Alverca WWWLL. In the last 2 meetings on record, Benfica won 2, Alverca won 0 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 2.5–1.1. Benfica are clear favorites: Benfica 67%, draw 18%, Alverca 15%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Benfica 1758, Alverca 1481) give Benfica an expected score of 87%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Benfica 2.46 · Alverca 1.11 · most likely score 2–1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.30 / away 1.45 goals per game from 84 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Benfica expected score 87%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Benfica | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Table position | 10th |
| 22 (9) | Points (played) | 11 (9) |
| 7-1-1 | W-D-L | 3-2-4 |
| 2.89 | Goals for / game* | 1.44 |
| 0.89 | Goals against / game* | 1.44 |
| LWWWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWWLL |
| 1758 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1481 |
| 1.83 / 0.73 | Attack / defence index | 1.04 / 1.04 |
Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Benfica 2 wins · 0 draws · Alverca 0 wins
- Benfica 2–1 Alverca
- Alverca 1–2 Benfica