The Coefficient6213OVRHome
Atalanta
- ATT
- 6814
- DEF
- 6012
- FRM
- 5311
- ELO
- 6613
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Atalanta vs Parma: Serie A, Nov 2, 2026
Serie AHomeAtalanta6213OVR
Kick-off 1:45 PM CT
AwayParma4810OVR
Monday, November 2, 2026 · 1:45 PM CT · New Balance Arena, Bergamo, Italy
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6814Attack367
- 6012Defence6413
- 5311Form398
- 6613Elo strength5110
- 6213Overall4810
4810OVRAway
Parma
- ATT
- 367
- DEF
- 6413
- FRM
- 398
- ELO
- 5110
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Atalanta (12th, 11 pts from 9) host Parma (18th, 5 pts from 9) in the Serie A table as it stands. Atalanta have scored 16 and conceded 17 in 9 Serie A games (1.8 and 1.9 per game). Parma have scored 5 and conceded 15 in 9 Serie A games (0.6 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Atalanta WLLDD, Parma DLLLD. In the last 5 meetings on record, Atalanta won 2, Parma won 2 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.8–0.9. Atalanta are clear favorites: Atalanta 59%, draw 23%, Parma 18%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 12% chance. Elo ratings (Atalanta 1555, Parma 1415) give Atalanta an expected score of 76%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Atalanta 1.82 · Parma 0.91 · most likely score 1–0 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.63 / away 1.57 goals per game from 93 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Atalanta expected score 76%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Atalanta | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| 12th | Table position | 18th |
| 11 (9) | Points (played) | 5 (9) |
| 3-2-4 | W-D-L | 1-2-6 |
| 1.78 | Goals for / game* | 0.56 |
| 1.89 | Goals against / game* | 1.67 |
| WLLDD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DLLLD |
| 1555 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1415 |
| 1.08 / 1.13 | Attack / defence index | 0.51 / 1.03 |
Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Atalanta 2 wins · 1 draw · Parma 2 wins
- Atalanta 4–0 Parma
- Parma 1–1 Atalanta
- Atalanta 2–3 Parma
- Parma 1–3 Atalanta
- Parma 4–1 Atalanta