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1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Cologne: Bundesliga, Nov 1, 2026

Bundesliga
Home1. FC Union Berlin5411OVR
Kick-off 8:30 AM CT
AwayFC Cologne6012OVR

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 8:30 AM CT · Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin, Germany

Team comparison

Ratings

5411OVRHome

1. FC Union Berlin

ATT
469
DEF
5311
FRM
6714
ELO
5411
  • 469Attack5311
  • 5311Defence6814
  • 6714Form6714
  • 5411Elo strength5110
  • 5411Overall6012
ATTDEFFRMELO
Union Berlin Cologne
6012OVRAway

FC Cologne

ATT
5311
DEF
6814
FRM
6714
ELO
5110

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Union Berlin (17th, 6 pts from 7) host Cologne (14th, 8 pts from 7) in the Bundesliga table as it stands. Union Berlin have scored 6 and conceded 18 in 7 Bundesliga games (0.9 and 2.6 per game). Cologne have scored 8 and conceded 11 in 7 Bundesliga games (1.1 and 1.6 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Union Berlin WWDDL, Cologne DWLDW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Union Berlin won 2, Cologne won 2 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.3–1.4. This looks evenly matched: Union Berlin 34%, draw 26%, Cologne 40%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 12% chance. Elo ratings (Union Berlin 1443, Cologne 1423) give Union Berlin an expected score of 61%, which disagrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Union Berlin winDrawCologne win

Expected goals (model): Union Berlin 1.26 · Cologne 1.39 · most likely score 1–1 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.13 / away 1.39 goals per game from 70 Bundesliga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Union Berlin expected score 61%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

Union BerlinCologne
17thTable position14th
6 (7)Points (played)8 (7)
1-3-3W-D-L2-2-3
0.86Goals for / game*1.14
2.57Goals against / game*1.57
WWDDLForm, last 5 (all comps)DWLDW
1443Elo rating (pre-match)1423
0.64 / 1.32Attack / defence index0.76 / 0.93

Table: current Bundesliga standings. *Bundesliga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Union Berlin 2 wins · 1 draw · Cologne 2 wins

  • FC Cologne 5–0 1. FC Union Berlin
  • 1. FC Union Berlin 2–2 FC Cologne
  • FC Cologne 0–1 1. FC Union Berlin
  • FC Cologne 3–2 1. FC Union Berlin
  • 1. FC Union Berlin 2–0 FC Cologne