The Coefficient6914OVRHome
Marseille
- ATT
- 7816
- DEF
- 6313
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 6413
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Marseille vs Toulouse: Ligue 1, Nov 1, 2026
Ligue 1HomeMarseille6914OVR
Kick-off 1:45 PM CT
AwayToulouse6613OVR
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 1:45 PM CT · Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, France
Team comparison
Ratings
- 7816Attack6513
- 6313Defence6814
- 7114Form6714
- 6413Elo strength6213
- 6914Overall6613
6613OVRAway
Toulouse
- ATT
- 6513
- DEF
- 6814
- FRM
- 6714
- ELO
- 6213
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Marseille (9th, 12 pts from 8) host Toulouse (11th, 10 pts from 8) in the Ligue 1 table as it stands. Marseille have scored 18 and conceded 13 in 8 Ligue 1 games (2.2 and 1.6 per game). Toulouse have scored 12 and conceded 11 in 8 Ligue 1 games (1.5 and 1.4 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Marseille WLWLW, Toulouse WLDWD. In the last 5 meetings on record, Marseille won 3, Toulouse won 0 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 2.1–1.4. Marseille are clear favorites: Marseille 53%, draw 21%, Toulouse 26%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Marseille 1532, Toulouse 1515) give Marseille an expected score of 61%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Marseille 2.10 · Toulouse 1.43 · most likely score 2–1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.66 / away 1.37 goals per game from 76 Ligue 1 games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Marseille expected score 61%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Marseille | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| 9th | Table position | 11th |
| 12 (8) | Points (played) | 10 (8) |
| 4-0-4 | W-D-L | 2-4-2 |
| 2.25 | Goals for / game* | 1.50 |
| 1.62 | Goals against / game* | 1.38 |
| WLWLW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLDWD |
| 1532 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1515 |
| 1.35 / 1.05 | Attack / defence index | 0.99 / 0.93 |
Table: current Ligue 1 standings. *Ligue 1 games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Marseille 3 wins · 2 draws · Toulouse 0 wins
- Toulouse 0–1 Marseille
- Marseille 2–2 Toulouse
- Marseille 2–2 Toulouse
- Marseille 3–2 Toulouse
- Toulouse 1–3 Marseille