The Coefficient5211OVRHome
Maritimo
- ATT
- 5511
- DEF
- 5010
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 5611
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Maritimo vs Santa Clara: Primeira Liga, Nov 1, 2026
Primeira LigaHomeMaritimo5211OVR
Kick-off 12:00 PM CT
AwaySanta Clara7114OVR
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Estádio do Marítimo, Funchal, Portugal
Team comparison
Ratings
- 5511Attack6714
- 5010Defence8617
- 4810Form6213
- 5611Elo strength6213
- 5211Overall7114
7114OVRAway
Santa Clara
- ATT
- 6714
- DEF
- 8617
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 6213
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Maritimo (14th, 8 pts from 9) host Santa Clara (4th, 18 pts from 9) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Maritimo have scored 9 and conceded 19 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.0 and 2.1 per game). Santa Clara have scored 13 and conceded 6 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.4 and 0.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Maritimo LDLWL, Santa Clara WDWLL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Maritimo won 2, Santa Clara won 2 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 0.6–2.1. Santa Clara are clear favorites: Maritimo 10%, draw 18%, Santa Clara 72%. The single most likely score is 0–2, but even that only has a 14% chance. Elo ratings (Maritimo 1460, Santa Clara 1520) give Maritimo an expected score of 50%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Maritimo 0.63 · Santa Clara 2.11 · most likely score 0–2 (14%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.30 / away 1.45 goals per game from 84 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Maritimo expected score 50%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Maritimo | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| 14th | Table position | 4th |
| 8 (9) | Points (played) | 18 (9) |
| 2-2-5 | W-D-L | 5-3-1 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 1.44 |
| 2.11 | Goals against / game* | 0.67 |
| LDLWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WDWLL |
| 1460 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1520 |
| 0.80 / 1.40 | Attack / defence index | 1.04 / 0.61 |
Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Maritimo 2 wins · 1 draw · Santa Clara 2 wins
- Maritimo 3–1 Santa Clara
- Santa Clara 2–1 Maritimo
- Santa Clara 2–2 Maritimo
- Maritimo 4–1 Santa Clara
- Maritimo 1–2 Santa Clara