The Coefficient7716OVRHome
Liverpool
- ATT
- 6513
- DEF
- 7415
- FRM
- 9920
- ELO
- 7816
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Liverpool vs Arsenal: Premier League, Nov 1, 2026
Premier LeagueHomeLiverpool7716OVR
Kick-off 10:30 AM CT
AwayArsenal8217OVR
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 10:30 AM CT · Anfield, Liverpool, England
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6513Attack7114
- 7415Defence8718
- 9920Form7615
- 7816Elo strength9519
- 7716Overall8217
8217OVRAway
Arsenal
- ATT
- 7114
- DEF
- 8718
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 9519
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Liverpool (5th, 15 pts from 8) host Arsenal (2nd, 21 pts from 8) in the Premier League table as it stands. Liverpool have scored 11 and conceded 8 in 8 Premier League games (1.4 and 1.0 per game). Arsenal have scored 13 and conceded 5 in 8 Premier League games (1.6 and 0.6 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Liverpool WWWWW, Arsenal WWDWL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Liverpool won 2, Arsenal won 0 and 3 were drawn. The goals model expects about 0.9–1.1. Arsenal are slight favorites: Liverpool 30%, draw 30%, Arsenal 39%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 14% chance. Elo ratings (Liverpool 1664, Arsenal 1812) give Liverpool an expected score of 38%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Liverpool 0.93 · Arsenal 1.10 · most likely score 0–1 (14%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.53 / away 1.20 goals per game from 88 Premier League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Liverpool expected score 38%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Liverpool | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 5th | Table position | 2nd |
| 15 (8) | Points (played) | 21 (8) |
| 4-3-1 | W-D-L | 7-0-1 |
| 1.38 | Goals for / game* | 1.62 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game* | 0.62 |
| WWWWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWDWL |
| 1664 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1812 |
| 1.00 / 0.80 | Attack / defence index | 1.14 / 0.60 |
Table: current Premier League standings. *Premier League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Liverpool 2 wins · 3 draws · Arsenal 0 wins
- Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool
- Liverpool 1–0 Arsenal
- Liverpool 2–2 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 2–1 Arsenal