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Lecce vs Genoa: Serie A, Nov 1, 2026

Serie A
HomeLecce5211OVR
Kick-off 11:00 AM CT
AwayGenoa6012OVR

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 11:00 AM CT · Via Del Mare, Lecce, Italy

Team comparison

Ratings

5211OVRHome

Lecce

ATT
5411
DEF
5611
FRM
449
ELO
5110
  • 5411Attack479
  • 5611Defence6814
  • 449Form7114
  • 5110Elo strength5611
  • 5211Overall6012
ATTDEFFRMELO
Lecce Genoa
6012OVRAway

Genoa

ATT
479
DEF
6814
FRM
7114
ELO
5611

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Lecce (14th, 9 pts from 9) host Genoa (13th, 10 pts from 9) in the Serie A table as it stands. Lecce have scored 10 and conceded 19 in 9 Serie A games (1.1 and 2.1 per game). Genoa have scored 8 and conceded 13 in 9 Serie A games (0.9 and 1.4 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Lecce LLWLL, Genoa LWLWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Lecce won 1, Genoa won 2 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.2–1.3. This looks evenly matched: Lecce 33%, draw 27%, Genoa 40%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Lecce 1420, Genoa 1463) give Lecce an expected score of 52%, which disagrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Lecce winDrawGenoa win

Expected goals (model): Lecce 1.17 · Genoa 1.29 · most likely score 1–1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.63 / away 1.57 goals per game from 93 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Lecce expected score 52%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

LecceGenoa
14thTable position13th
9 (9)Points (played)10 (9)
3-0-6W-D-L3-1-5
1.11Goals for / game*0.89
2.11Goals against / game*1.44
LLWLLForm, last 5 (all comps)LWLWW
1420Elo rating (pre-match)1463
0.77 / 1.24Attack / defence index0.67 / 0.93

Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Lecce 1 win · 2 draws · Genoa 2 wins

  • Lecce 1–0 Genoa
  • Genoa 0–0 Lecce
  • Genoa 2–1 Lecce
  • Lecce 0–0 Genoa
  • Genoa 2–1 Lecce