The Coefficient8217OVRHome
Lazio
- ATT
- 7916
- DEF
- 8617
- FRM
- 9018
- ELO
- 7415
← Match Center
Lazio vs Cagliari: Serie A, Nov 1, 2026
Serie AHomeLazio8217OVR
Kick-off 8:00 AM CT
AwayCagliari5511OVR
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 8:00 AM CT · Olimpico, Roma, Italy
Team comparison
Ratings
- 7916Attack479
- 8617Defence6814
- 9018Form4810
- 7415Elo strength5511
- 8217Overall5511
5511OVRAway
Cagliari
- ATT
- 479
- DEF
- 6814
- FRM
- 4810
- ELO
- 5511
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Lazio (1st, 25 pts from 9) host Cagliari (11th, 13 pts from 9) in the Serie A table as it stands. Lazio have scored 22 and conceded 7 in 9 Serie A games (2.4 and 0.8 per game). Cagliari have scored 8 and conceded 13 in 9 Serie A games (0.9 and 1.4 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Lazio DWWWW, Cagliari WDLLL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Lazio won 4, Cagliari won 0 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 2.1–0.6. Lazio are clear favorites: Lazio 72%, draw 18%, Cagliari 10%. The single most likely score is 2–0, but even that only has a 14% chance. Elo ratings (Lazio 1623, Cagliari 1453) give Lazio an expected score of 79%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Lazio 2.11 · Cagliari 0.64 · most likely score 2–0 (14%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.63 / away 1.57 goals per game from 93 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Lazio expected score 79%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Lazio | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Table position | 11th |
| 25 (9) | Points (played) | 13 (9) |
| 8-1-0 | W-D-L | 4-1-4 |
| 2.44 | Goals for / game* | 0.89 |
| 0.78 | Goals against / game* | 1.44 |
| DWWWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WDLLL |
| 1623 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1453 |
| 1.39 / 0.61 | Attack / defence index | 0.67 / 0.93 |
Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Lazio 4 wins · 1 draw · Cagliari 0 wins
- Cagliari 0–0 Lazio
- Lazio 2–0 Cagliari
- Cagliari 1–2 Lazio
- Lazio 2–1 Cagliari
- Cagliari 1–3 Lazio