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Excelsior vs FC Twente: Eredivisie, Nov 1, 2026

Eredivisie
HomeExcelsior5812OVR
Kick-off 7:30 AM CT
AwayFC Twente7515OVR

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT · Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam, Netherlands

Team comparison

Ratings

5812OVRHome

Excelsior

ATT
6012
DEF
6513
FRM
4810
ELO
5511
  • 6012Attack6513
  • 6513Defence8417
  • 4810Form7615
  • 5511Elo strength7515
  • 5812Overall7515
ATTDEFFRMELO
Excelsior FC Twente
7515OVRAway

FC Twente

ATT
6513
DEF
8417
FRM
7615
ELO
7515

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Excelsior (12th, 11 pts from 10) host FC Twente (4th, 20 pts from 10) in the Eredivisie table as it stands. Excelsior have scored 16 and conceded 19 in 10 Eredivisie games (1.6 and 1.9 per game). FC Twente have scored 19 and conceded 10 in 10 Eredivisie games (1.9 and 1.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Excelsior DLLLW, FC Twente DWLWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Excelsior won 1, FC Twente won 2 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.0–2.0. FC Twente are clear favorites: Excelsior 19%, draw 21%, FC Twente 60%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 10% chance. Elo ratings (Excelsior 1457, FC Twente 1638) give Excelsior an expected score of 33%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Excelsior winDrawFC Twente win

Expected goals (model): Excelsior 1.03 · FC Twente 1.98 · most likely score 1–1 (10%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.81 / away 1.95 goals per game from 95 Eredivisie games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Excelsior expected score 33%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

ExcelsiorFC Twente
12thTable position4th
11 (10)Points (played)20 (10)
3-2-5W-D-L6-2-2
1.60Goals for / game*1.90
1.90Goals against / game*1.00
DLLLWForm, last 5 (all comps)DWLWW
1457Elo rating (pre-match)1638
0.89 / 1.01Attack / defence index1.01 / 0.64

Table: current Eredivisie standings. *Eredivisie games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Excelsior 1 win · 2 draws · FC Twente 2 wins

  • FC Twente 0–0 Excelsior
  • Excelsior 1–0 FC Twente
  • Excelsior 0–3 FC Twente
  • FC Twente 4–2 Excelsior
  • Excelsior 0–0 FC Twente