The Coefficient6513OVRHome
Elche
- ATT
- 6313
- DEF
- 6112
- FRM
- 8116
- ELO
- 5912
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Elche vs Valencia: La Liga, Nov 1, 2026
La LigaHomeElche6513OVR
Kick-off 11:30 AM CT
AwayValencia5311OVR
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 11:30 AM CT · Estadio Martínez Valero, Elche, Spain
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6313Attack428
- 6112Defence6112
- 8116Form5311
- 5912Elo strength5812
- 6513Overall5311
5311OVRAway
Valencia
- ATT
- 428
- DEF
- 6112
- FRM
- 5311
- ELO
- 5812
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Elche (16th, 10 pts from 10) host Valencia (19th, 6 pts from 10) in the La Liga table as it stands. Elche have scored 14 and conceded 17 in 10 La Liga games (1.4 and 1.7 per game). Valencia have scored 7 and conceded 17 in 10 La Liga games (0.7 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Elche WDDWW, Valencia WLDDL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Elche won 1, Valencia won 2 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.8–0.8. Elche are clear favorites: Elche 60%, draw 23%, Valencia 17%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Elche 1492, Valencia 1480) give Elche an expected score of 60%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Elche 1.78 · Valencia 0.84 · most likely score 1–0 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.72 / away 1.30 goals per game from 104 La Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Elche expected score 60%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Elche | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|
| 16th | Table position | 19th |
| 10 (10) | Points (played) | 6 (10) |
| 2-4-4 | W-D-L | 1-3-6 |
| 1.40 | Goals for / game* | 0.70 |
| 1.70 | Goals against / game* | 1.70 |
| WDDWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLDDL |
| 1492 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1480 |
| 0.94 / 1.10 | Attack / defence index | 0.59 / 1.10 |
Table: current La Liga standings. *La Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Elche 1 win · 2 draws · Valencia 2 wins
- Elche 1–0 Valencia
- Valencia 1–1 Elche
- Elche 0–2 Valencia
- Valencia 2–2 Elche
- Elche 0–1 Valencia