The Coefficient5912OVRHome
Braga
- ATT
- 5511
- DEF
- 6914
- FRM
- 449
- ELO
- 6714
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Braga vs FC Famalicao: Primeira Liga, Nov 1, 2026
Primeira LigaHomeBraga5912OVR
Kick-off 2:30 PM CT
AwayFC Famalicao6714OVR
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 2:30 PM CT · Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga, Portugal
Team comparison
Ratings
- 5511Attack6914
- 6914Defence6914
- 449Form6213
- 6714Elo strength6613
- 5912Overall6714
6714OVRAway
FC Famalicao
- ATT
- 6914
- DEF
- 6914
- FRM
- 6213
- ELO
- 6613
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Braga (9th, 11 pts from 9) host FC Famalicao (11th, 10 pts from 9) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Braga have scored 9 and conceded 11 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.0 and 1.2 per game). FC Famalicao have scored 14 and conceded 11 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.6 and 1.2 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Braga LLLWL, FC Famalicao DWLLW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Braga won 2, FC Famalicao won 0 and 3 were drawn. The goals model expects about 0.9–1.5. FC Famalicao are clear favorites: Braga 24%, draw 26%, FC Famalicao 49%. The single most likely score is 0–1, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Braga 1566, FC Famalicao 1553) give Braga an expected score of 60%, which disagrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Braga 0.95 · FC Famalicao 1.46 · most likely score 0–1 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.30 / away 1.45 goals per game from 84 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Braga expected score 60%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Braga | FC Famalicao | |
|---|---|---|
| 9th | Table position | 11th |
| 11 (9) | Points (played) | 10 (9) |
| 3-2-4 | W-D-L | 2-4-3 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 1.56 |
| 1.22 | Goals against / game* | 1.22 |
| LLLWL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DWLLW |
| 1566 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1553 |
| 0.80 / 0.92 | Attack / defence index | 1.10 / 0.92 |
Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Braga 2 wins · 3 draws · FC Famalicao 0 wins
- Braga 2–2 FC Famalicao
- FC Famalicao 1–2 Braga
- FC Famalicao 1–1 Braga
- Braga 3–3 FC Famalicao
- FC Famalicao 1–2 Braga