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Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: La Liga, Nov 1, 2026

La Liga
HomeAthletic Club6714OVR
Kick-off 2:00 PM CT
AwayReal Sociedad7114OVR

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 2:00 PM CT · San Mamés, Bilbao, Spain

Team comparison

Ratings

6714OVRHome

Athletic Club

ATT
6112
DEF
7816
FRM
6714
ELO
5912
  • 6112Attack7315
  • 7816Defence5912
  • 6714Form9018
  • 5912Elo strength6513
  • 6714Overall7114
ATTDEFFRMELO
Athletic Real Sociedad
7114OVRAway

Real Sociedad

ATT
7315
DEF
5912
FRM
9018
ELO
6513

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Athletic (7th, 12 pts from 9) host Real Sociedad (5th, 19 pts from 10) in the La Liga table as it stands. Athletic have scored 12 and conceded 9 in 9 La Liga games (1.3 and 1.0 per game). Real Sociedad have scored 19 and conceded 18 in 10 La Liga games (1.9 and 1.8 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Athletic DDLWW, Real Sociedad WDWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Athletic won 0, Real Sociedad won 3 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.8–1.2. Athletic are clear favorites: Athletic 52%, draw 23%, Real Sociedad 25%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 11% chance. Elo ratings (Athletic 1489, Real Sociedad 1541) give Athletic an expected score of 51%, which agrees with the goals model.

Data outlook

Athletic winDrawReal Sociedad win

Expected goals (model): Athletic 1.80 · Real Sociedad 1.16 · most likely score 1–1 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.72 / away 1.30 goals per game from 104 La Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Athletic expected score 51%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

AthleticReal Sociedad
7thTable position5th
12 (9)Points (played)19 (10)
3-3-3W-D-L6-1-3
1.33Goals for / game*1.90
1.00Goals against / game*1.80
DDLWWForm, last 5 (all comps)WDWWW
1489Elo rating (pre-match)1541
0.91 / 0.75Attack / defence index1.20 / 1.15

Table: current La Liga standings. *La Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Athletic 0 wins · 2 draws · Real Sociedad 3 wins

  • Real Sociedad 1–0 Athletic Club
  • Athletic Club 0–1 Real Sociedad
  • Athletic Club 1–1 Real Sociedad
  • Real Sociedad 3–2 Athletic Club
  • Real Sociedad 0–0 Athletic Club