The Coefficient7215OVRHome
Arouca
- ATT
- 6413
- DEF
- 8217
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 6313
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Arouca vs C.D. Nacional: Primeira Liga, Nov 1, 2026
Primeira LigaHomeArouca7215OVR
Kick-off 9:30 AM CT
AwayC.D. Nacional5211OVR
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 9:30 AM CT · Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca, Portugal
Team comparison
Ratings
- 6413Attack5812
- 8217Defence5211
- 7615Form449
- 6313Elo strength4910
- 7215Overall5211
5211OVRAway
C.D. Nacional
- ATT
- 5812
- DEF
- 5211
- FRM
- 449
- ELO
- 4910
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Who wins?
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Pre-game analysis
Arouca (5th, 17 pts from 9) host Nacional (16th, 7 pts from 9) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Arouca have scored 12 and conceded 7 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.3 and 0.8 per game). Nacional have scored 10 and conceded 18 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.1 and 2.0 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Arouca LDWWW, Nacional LLLLW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Arouca won 4, Nacional won 0 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.7–0.8. Arouca are clear favorites: Arouca 58%, draw 24%, Nacional 18%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 13% chance. Elo ratings (Arouca 1527, Nacional 1401) give Arouca an expected score of 74%, which agrees with the goals model.
Data outlook
Expected goals (model): Arouca 1.70 · Nacional 0.84 · most likely score 1–0 (13%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.30 / away 1.45 goals per game from 84 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Arouca expected score 74%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Key numbers
| Arouca | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| 5th | Table position | 16th |
| 17 (9) | Points (played) | 7 (9) |
| 5-2-2 | W-D-L | 2-1-6 |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game* | 1.11 |
| 0.78 | Goals against / game* | 2.00 |
| LDWWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LLLLW |
| 1527 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1401 |
| 0.98 / 0.67 | Attack / defence index | 0.86 / 1.34 |
Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Head-to-head
Arouca 4 wins · 1 draw · Nacional 0 wins
- Arouca 3–0 C.D. Nacional
- C.D. Nacional 1–2 Arouca
- C.D. Nacional 1–2 Arouca
- Arouca 1–0 C.D. Nacional
- C.D. Nacional 1–1 Arouca