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Moreirense vs Estrela: Primeira Liga, Oct 31, 2026

Primeira Liga
HomeMoreirense5812OVR
2–1FT
AwayEstrela5611OVR
  • ⚽ 50' Landerson
  • ⚽ 57' Lovro Zvonarek
  • ⚽ 90'+5' Nile John

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 10:30 AM CT · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos, Portugal

Highlights

2D match highlights

Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).

▶ Find official highlights on YouTube

Key moments

  1. Yellow card for Santiago Serra (Estrela).
  2. Substitution for Moreirense: Álvaro Martínez comes on for Kiko.
  3. Half-time: Moreirense 0–0 Estrela.
  4. GOAL! Landerson scores for Moreirense. Moreirense 1–0 Estrela. Assist: Manuel Mendonça.
  5. GOAL! Lovro Zvonarek scores for Estrela. Moreirense 1–1 Estrela.
  6. Substitution for Estrela: Jefferson Encada comes on for Ianis Stoica.
  7. Substitution for Moreirense: Songa Chipyoka comes on for Landerson.
  8. Substitution for Moreirense: Yan Maranhão comes on for Leonardo Vonic.
  9. Substitution for Moreirense: Rodri Alonso comes on for Manuel Mendonça.
  10. Substitution for Estrela: Tom Moustier comes on for Kevin Höög Jansson.
  11. Substitution for Estrela: Rafa Soares comes on for Lucas Mincarelli.
  12. Leandro Antonetti (Estrela) shoots off target. big chance*
  13. GOAL! Nile John scores for Moreirense. Moreirense 2–1 Estrela. Assist: Tiago Andrade.
  14. Full-time: Moreirense 2–1 Estrela.
Team comparison

Ratings

5812OVRHome

Moreirense

ATT
6112
DEF
5611
FRM
6213
ELO
5511
  • 6112Attack6914
  • 5611Defence5411
  • 6213Form4810
  • 5511Elo strength4810
  • 5812Overall5611
ATTDEFFRMELO
Moreirense Estrela
5611OVRAway

Estrela

ATT
6914
DEF
5411
FRM
4810
ELO
4810

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Post-match note

Final score: Moreirense 2–1 Estrela. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a Moreirense win at only 29%, and its favorite was an Estrela win (50%). Goals: 3 scored against 3.5 expected (Moreirense 2 vs 1.5, Estrela 1 vs 2.0). Shots: Moreirense 11 (4 on target) vs Estrela 11 (1); possession 52.5% – 47.5%.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Moreirense (8th, 14 pts from 10) host Estrela (12th, 10 pts from 10) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Moreirense have scored 11 and conceded 16 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.2 and 1.8 per game). Estrela have scored 14 and conceded 17 in 9 Primeira Liga games (1.6 and 1.9 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Moreirense WDLLW, Estrela DLLWL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Moreirense won 1, Estrela won 1 and 3 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.5–2.0. Estrela are clear favorites: Moreirense 29%, draw 22%, Estrela 50%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Moreirense 1459, Estrela 1392) give Moreirense an expected score of 67%, which disagrees with the goals model.

Pre-match outlook

Moreirense winDrawEstrela win

Expected goals (model): Moreirense 1.49 · Estrela 2.00 · most likely score 1–1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.26 / away 1.48 goals per game from 82 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Moreirense expected score 67%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

MoreirenseEstrela
8thTable position12th
14 (10)Points (played)10 (10)
4-2-4W-D-L2-4-4
1.22Goals for / game*1.56
1.78Goals against / game*1.89
WDLLWForm, last 5 (all comps)DLLWL
1459Elo rating (pre-match)1392
0.92 / 1.23Attack / defence index1.10 / 1.29
52.5Possession % (this match)47.5
11Shots (this match)11
4Shots on target (this match)1
3Corners (this match)3
10Fouls (this match)15

Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Moreirense 1 win · 3 draws · Estrela 1 win

  • Moreirense 3–2 Estrela
  • Estrela 0–0 Moreirense
  • Moreirense 1–1 Estrela
  • Estrela 2–1 Moreirense
  • Moreirense 2–2 Estrela