Feyenoord Rotterdam
- ATT
- 8317
- DEF
- 8217
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 7615
Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 10:30 AM CT · De Kuip, Rotterdam, Netherlands
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
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Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Feyenoord 1–1 Fortuna. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a draw at only 18%, and its favorite was a Feyenoord win (64%). Goals: 2 scored against 3.7 expected (Feyenoord 1 vs 2.5, Fortuna 1 vs 1.3). Shots: Feyenoord 15 (6 on target) vs Fortuna 11 (3); possession 69.3% – 30.7%.
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Feyenoord (1st, 25 pts from 11) host Fortuna (6th, 19 pts from 11) in the Eredivisie table as it stands. Feyenoord have scored 32 and conceded 11 in 10 Eredivisie games (3.2 and 1.1 per game). Fortuna have scored 17 and conceded 17 in 10 Eredivisie games (1.7 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Feyenoord WWWLD, Fortuna WDDWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Feyenoord won 4, Fortuna won 0 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 2.5–1.3. Feyenoord are clear favorites: Feyenoord 64%, draw 18%, Fortuna 18%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Feyenoord 1648, Fortuna 1465) give Feyenoord an expected score of 80%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Feyenoord 2.46 · Fortuna 1.27 · most likely score 2–1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.76 / away 2.04 goals per game from 90 Eredivisie games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Feyenoord expected score 80%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Feyenoord | Fortuna | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Table position | 6th |
| 25 (11) | Points (played) | 19 (11) |
| 7-4-0 | W-D-L | 5-4-2 |
| 3.20 | Goals for / game* | 1.70 |
| 1.10 | Goals against / game* | 1.70 |
| WWWLD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WDDWW |
| 1648 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1465 |
| 1.53 / 0.68 | Attack / defence index | 0.92 / 0.92 |
| 69.3 | Possession % (this match) | 30.7 |
| 15 | Shots (this match) | 11 |
| 6 | Shots on target (this match) | 3 |
| 6 | Corners (this match) | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls (this match) | 13 |
Table: current Eredivisie standings. *Eredivisie games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Feyenoord 4 wins · 1 draw · Fortuna 0 wins