Erzurum BB
- ATT
- 5010
- DEF
- 6814
- FRM
- 7615
- ELO
- 6112
Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 5:30 AM CT · Erzurum Kazim Karabekir, Erzurum, Türkiye
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed.
▶ Find official highlights on YouTube
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Erzurum 1–3 Çorum FK. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Çorum FK win (43%). Goals: 4 scored against 2.8 expected (Erzurum 1 vs 1.3, Çorum FK 3 vs 1.5). Shots: Erzurum 13 (3 on target) vs Çorum FK 7 (3); possession 52.4% – 47.6%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Erzurum (10th, 14 pts from 10) host Çorum FK (6th, 16 pts from 10) in the Süper Lig table as it stands. Erzurum have scored 8 and conceded 12 in 9 Süper Lig games (0.9 and 1.3 per game). Çorum FK have scored 18 and conceded 15 in 9 Süper Lig games (2.0 and 1.7 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Erzurum LWDWW, Çorum FK WLWWL. The goals model expects about 1.3–1.5. Çorum FK are slight favorites: Erzurum 32%, draw 25%, Çorum FK 43%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 12% chance. Elo ratings (Erzurum 1509, Çorum FK 1520) give Erzurum an expected score of 57%, which disagrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Erzurum 1.29 · Çorum FK 1.52 · most likely score 1–1 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.65 / away 1.27 goals per game from 82 Süper Lig games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Erzurum expected score 57%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Erzurum | Çorum FK | |
|---|---|---|
| 10th | Table position | 6th |
| 14 (10) | Points (played) | 16 (10) |
| 4-2-4 | W-D-L | 5-1-4 |
| 0.89 | Goals for / game* | 2.00 |
| 1.33 | Goals against / game* | 1.67 |
| LWDWW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLWWL |
| 1509 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1520 |
| 0.71 / 0.94 | Attack / defence index | 1.28 / 1.11 |
| 52.4 | Possession % (this match) | 47.6 |
| 13 | Shots (this match) | 7 |
| 3 | Shots on target (this match) | 3 |
| 8 | Corners (this match) | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls (this match) | 15 |
Table: current Süper Lig standings. *Süper Lig games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
No previous meetings in the data feed.