Chelsea
- ATT
- 7916
- DEF
- 5511
- FRM
- 5812
- ELO
- 6714
Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 7:30 AM CT · Stamford Bridge, London, England
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from NBC Sports on YouTube: âChelsea v. Manchester United | PREMIER LEAGUE HIGHLIGHTS | 10/31/2026â. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 Ă log2(attack index), DEF = 65 â 30 Ă log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 Ă points from the last 5 games Ă· 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo â 1500) Ă· 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating Ă· 99 Ă 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Chelsea 2â0 Man Utd. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Chelsea win (57%). Goals: 2 scored against 3.8 expected (Chelsea 2 vs 2.4, Man Utd 0 vs 1.5). Shots: Chelsea 18 (9 on target) vs Man Utd 12 (5); possession 58.7% â 41.3%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Chelsea (4th, 16 pts from 9) host Man Utd (17th, 7 pts from 9) in the Premier League table as it stands. Chelsea have scored 17 and conceded 15 in 8 Premier League games (2.1 and 1.9 per game). Man Utd have scored 10 and conceded 13 in 8 Premier League games (1.2 and 1.6 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Chelsea LWWLL, Man Utd DLDLL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Chelsea won 2, Man Utd won 2 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 2.4â1.5. Chelsea are clear favorites: Chelsea 57%, draw 19%, Man Utd 23%. The single most likely score is 2â1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Chelsea 1561, Man Utd 1588) give Chelsea an expected score of 55%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Chelsea 2.36 · Man Utd 1.47 · most likely score 2â1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.51 / away 1.26 goals per game from 80 Premier League games (this season). Expected goals = baseline Ă attack Ă opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Chelsea expected score 55%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Chelsea | Man Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| 4th | Table position | 17th |
| 16 (9) | Points (played) | 7 (9) |
| 5-1-3 | W-D-L | 1-4-4 |
| 2.12 | Goals for / game* | 1.25 |
| 1.88 | Goals against / game* | 1.62 |
| LWWLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | DLDLL |
| 1561 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1588 |
| 1.39 / 1.26 | Attack / defence index | 0.93 / 1.12 |
| 58.7 | Possession % (this match) | 41.3 |
| 18 | Shots (this match) | 12 |
| 9 | Shots on target (this match) | 5 |
| 8 | Corners (this match) | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls (this match) | 20 |
Table: current Premier League standings. *Premier League games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Chelsea 2 wins · 1 draw · Man Utd 2 wins