The Coefficient
EN – Language: English
← Match Center

Bologna vs Monza: Serie A, Oct 31, 2026

Serie A
HomeBologna6714OVR
2–1FT
AwayMonza5411OVR
  • ⚽ 6' Gustavo Varela (pen)
  • ⚽ 33' Tommaso Pobega
  • ⚽ 59' Federico Bernardeschi (pen)

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 9:00 AM CT · Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna, Italy

Highlights

2D match highlights

Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).

▶ Watch official highlights

Official video from Serie A on YouTube: “Skorupski Saves Crucial Penalty | BOLOGNA-MONZA | HIGHLIGHTS | Serie A 2026/27”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.

Key moments

  1. Jens Odgaard (Bologna) shoots off target. big chance*
  2. GOAL! Gustavo Varela scores from the penalty spot for Monza. Bologna 0–1 Monza.
  3. Yellow card for Ricardo Mangas (Monza).
  4. Yellow card for Jens Odgaard (Bologna).
  5. Yellow card for Tommaso Pobega (Bologna).
  6. GOAL! Tommaso Pobega scores for Bologna. Bologna 1–1 Monza. Assist: Juan Miranda.
  7. Lewis Ferguson (Bologna) hits the target. Saved. big chance*
  8. Nicoló Casale (Bologna) has a shot blocked. big chance*
  9. Half-time: Bologna 1–1 Monza.
  10. Substitution for Monza: Jay Robinson comes on for Exequiel Zeballos.
  11. Yellow card for Lorenzo Lucchesi (Monza).
  12. GOAL! Federico Bernardeschi scores from the penalty spot for Bologna. Bologna 2–1 Monza.
  13. Substitution for Bologna: Samuel Mbangula comes on for Jens Odgaard.
  14. Substitution for Monza: Mathis Mout comes on for Leonardo Colombo.
  15. Substitution for Monza: Idrissa Touré comes on for Eddy Kouadio.
  16. Substitution for Monza: Cyril Ngonge comes on for Dany Mota.
  17. Substitution for Monza: Patrick Cutrone comes on for Gustavo Varela.
  18. Yellow card for Nadir Zortea (Bologna).
  19. Substitution for Bologna: Oussama El Azzouzi comes on for Tommaso Pobega.
  20. Substitution for Bologna: Matteo Darmian comes on for Martin Vitík.
  21. Yellow card for Idrissa Touré (Monza).
  22. Penalty to Monza, but Patrick Cutrone doesn't score.
  23. Substitution for Bologna: Mikel Amondarain comes on for Nadir Zortea.
  24. Substitution for Bologna: Artem Dovbyk comes on for Federico Bernardeschi.
  25. Yellow card for Mikel Amondarain (Bologna).
  26. Full-time: Bologna 2–1 Monza.
Team comparison

Ratings

6714OVRHome

Bologna

ATT
6012
DEF
7014
FRM
7615
ELO
6513
  • 6012Attack6914
  • 7014Defence5010
  • 7615Form4810
  • 6513Elo strength449
  • 6714Overall5411
ATTDEFFRMELO
Bologna Monza
5411OVRAway

Monza

ATT
6914
DEF
5010
FRM
4810
ELO
449

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Post-match note

Final score: Bologna 2–1 Monza. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Bologna win (50%). Goals: 3 scored against 3.5 expected (Bologna 2 vs 2.0, Monza 1 vs 1.5). Shots: Bologna 10 (5 on target) vs Monza 6 (4); possession 59.4% – 40.6%.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Bologna (9th, 14 pts from 10) host Monza (16th, 7 pts from 10) in the Serie A table as it stands. Bologna have scored 12 and conceded 12 in 9 Serie A games (1.3 and 1.3 per game). Monza have scored 16 and conceded 22 in 9 Serie A games (1.8 and 2.4 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Bologna DWLWW, Monza DLWLL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Bologna won 3, Monza won 0 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 2.0–1.5. Bologna are clear favorites: Bologna 50%, draw 22%, Monza 29%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Bologna 1549, Monza 1355) give Bologna an expected score of 81%, which agrees with the goals model.

Pre-match outlook

Bologna winDrawMonza win

Expected goals (model): Bologna 2.01 · Monza 1.49 · most likely score 2–1 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.61 / away 1.54 goals per game from 90 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Bologna expected score 81%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

BolognaMonza
9thTable position16th
14 (10)Points (played)7 (10)
4-2-4W-D-L2-1-7
1.33Goals for / game*1.78
1.33Goals against / game*2.44
DWLWWForm, last 5 (all comps)DLWLL
1549Elo rating (pre-match)1355
0.88 / 0.88Attack / defence index1.10 / 1.41
59.4Possession % (this match)40.6
10Shots (this match)6
5Shots on target (this match)4
5Corners (this match)2
13Fouls (this match)19

Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Bologna 3 wins · 2 draws · Monza 0 wins

  • Bologna 3–1 Monza
  • Bologna 4–0 Monza
  • Monza 1–2 Bologna
  • Bologna 0–0 Monza
  • Monza 0–0 Bologna