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Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: Bundesliga, Oct 31, 2026

Bundesliga
HomeBayern Munich8818OVR
2–2FT
AwayBorussia Dortmund7816OVR
  • ⚽ 38' Konrad Laimer
  • ⚽ 60' Serhou Guirassy
  • ⚽ 66' Dayot Upamecano
  • ⚽ 89' Fábio Silva

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 12:30 PM CT · Allianz Arena, München, Germany

Highlights

2D match highlights

Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).

▶ Watch official highlights

Official video from Bundesliga on YouTube: “Penalty Miss And DRAMA! | FC BAYERN - BORUSSIA DORTMUND | Highlights | Matchday 8 – Bundesliga”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.

Key moments

  1. Yellow card for Jobe Bellingham (Dortmund).
  2. Michael Olise (Bayern) hits the woodwork!
  3. Substitution for Bayern: Nathaniel Brown comes on for Ismael Saibari.
  4. Substitution for Bayern: Josip Stanisic comes on for Serge Gnabry.
  5. Jobe Bellingham (Dortmund) has the ball in the net, but the goal is ruled out after a video review.
  6. GOAL! Konrad Laimer scores for Bayern. Bayern 1–0 Dortmund.
  7. Half-time: Bayern 1–0 Dortmund.
  8. Yellow card for Josip Stanisic (Bayern).
  9. Penalty to Bayern, but Harry Kane doesn't score.
  10. GOAL! Serhou Guirassy scores for Dortmund. Bayern 1–1 Dortmund. Assist: Carney Chukwuemeka.
  11. GOAL! Dayot Upamecano scores for Bayern. Bayern 2–1 Dortmund. Assist: Harry Kane.
  12. Substitution for Dortmund: Marcel Sabitzer comes on for Carney Chukwuemeka.
  13. Substitution for Dortmund: Konstantinos Karetsas comes on for Maximilian Beier.
  14. Yellow card for Konrad Laimer (Bayern).
  15. Substitution for Dortmund: Fábio Silva comes on for Felix Nmecha.
  16. Substitution for Bayern: Lennart Karl comes on for Michael Olise.
  17. Substitution for Dortmund: Samuele Inácio comes on for Jobe Bellingham.
  18. Substitution for Dortmund: Julian Ryerson comes on for Kouakou Gadou.
  19. GOAL! Fábio Silva scores for Dortmund. Bayern 2–2 Dortmund. Assist: Konstantinos Karetsas.
  20. Lennart Karl (Bayern) hits the woodwork!
  21. Full-time: Bayern 2–2 Dortmund.
Team comparison

Ratings

8818OVRHome

Bayern Munich

ATT
8918
DEF
8417
FRM
8116
ELO
9820
  • 8918Attack6413
  • 8417Defence9319
  • 8116Form7615
  • 9820Elo strength8116
  • 8818Overall7816
ATTDEFFRMELO
Bayern Dortmund
7816OVRAway

Borussia Dortmund

ATT
6413
DEF
9319
FRM
7615
ELO
8116

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Post-match note

Final score: Bayern 2–2 Dortmund. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a draw at only 21%, and its favorite was a Bayern win (62%). Goals: 4 scored against 2.8 expected (Bayern 2 vs 1.9, Dortmund 2 vs 0.9). Shots: Bayern 23 (5 on target) vs Dortmund 12 (6); possession 55.5% – 44.5%.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Bayern (1st, 18 pts from 8) host Dortmund (2nd, 18 pts from 8) in the Bundesliga table as it stands. Bayern have scored 25 and conceded 6 in 7 Bundesliga games (3.6 and 0.9 per game). Dortmund have scored 12 and conceded 4 in 7 Bundesliga games (1.7 and 0.6 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Bayern DWDWW, Dortmund LDWWW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Bayern won 3, Dortmund won 0 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.9–0.9. Bayern are clear favorites: Bayern 62%, draw 21%, Dortmund 16%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 12% chance. Elo ratings (Bayern 1844, Dortmund 1685) give Bayern an expected score of 78%, which agrees with the goals model.

Pre-match outlook

Bayern winDrawDortmund win

Expected goals (model): Bayern 1.94 · Dortmund 0.87 · most likely score 1–0 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.13 / away 1.38 goals per game from 69 Bundesliga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Bayern expected score 78%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

BayernDortmund
1stTable position2nd
18 (8)Points (played)18 (8)
5-3-0W-D-L5-3-0
3.57Goals for / game*1.71
0.86Goals against / game*0.57
DWDWWForm, last 5 (all comps)LDWWW
1844Elo rating (pre-match)1685
1.73 / 0.64Attack / defence index0.98 / 0.53
55.5Possession % (this match)44.5
23Shots (this match)12
5Shots on target (this match)6
5Corners (this match)2
11Fouls (this match)6

Table: current Bundesliga standings. *Bundesliga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Bayern 3 wins · 2 draws · Dortmund 0 wins

  • Borussia Dortmund 1–2 Bayern Munich
  • Borussia Dortmund 2–3 Bayern Munich
  • Bayern Munich 2–1 Borussia Dortmund
  • Bayern Munich 2–2 Borussia Dortmund
  • Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Bayern Munich