Barcelona
- ATT
- 9920
- DEF
- 7515
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 9419
Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 3:00 PM CT · Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona, Spain
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from ESPN FC on YouTube: “BARCA DOMINATION 😤 Barcelona vs. Alavés | LALIGA Highlights | ESPN FC”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Barcelona 6–1 Alavés. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Barcelona win (79%). Goals: 7 scored against 4.1 expected (Barcelona 6 vs 3.1, Alavés 1 vs 1.0). Shots: Barcelona 13 (7 on target) vs Alavés 7 (3); possession 77.1% – 22.9%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Barcelona (1st, 30 pts from 11) host Alavés (10th, 12 pts from 11) in the La Liga table as it stands. Barcelona have scored 40 and conceded 11 in 10 La Liga games (4.0 and 1.1 per game). Alavés have scored 14 and conceded 11 in 10 La Liga games (1.4 and 1.1 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Barcelona WWWLL, Alavés LDLLD. In the last 5 meetings on record, Barcelona won 4, Alavés won 1 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 3.1–1.0. Barcelona are clear favorites: Barcelona 79%, draw 13%, Alavés 9%. The single most likely score is 3–0, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (Barcelona 1807, Alavés 1472) give Barcelona an expected score of 91%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Barcelona 3.08 · Alavés 0.99 · most likely score 3–0 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.68 / away 1.30 goals per game from 103 La Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Barcelona expected score 91%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Barcelona | Alavés | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Table position | 10th |
| 30 (11) | Points (played) | 12 (11) |
| 10-0-1 | W-D-L | 3-3-5 |
| 4.00 | Goals for / game* | 1.40 |
| 1.10 | Goals against / game* | 1.10 |
| WWWLL | Form, last 5 (all comps) | LDLLD |
| 1807 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1472 |
| 2.30 / 0.80 | Attack / defence index | 0.95 / 0.80 |
| 77.1 | Possession % (this match) | 22.9 |
| 13 | Shots (this match) | 7 |
| 7 | Shots on target (this match) | 3 |
| 4 | Corners (this match) | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls (this match) | 11 |
Table: current La Liga standings. *La Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Barcelona 4 wins · 0 draws · Alavés 1 win