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FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg: Bundesliga, Oct 31, 2026

Bundesliga
HomeFC Augsburg6513OVR
1–2FT
AwaySC Freiburg6914OVR
  • ⚽ 18' Michael Gregoritsch
  • ⚽ 65' Igor Matanovic
  • ⚽ 85' Cyriaque Irié

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 9:30 AM CT · WWK Arena, Augsburg, Germany

Highlights

2D match highlights

Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).

▶ Find official highlights on YouTube

Key moments

  1. Lucas Höler (Freiburg) shoots off target. big chance*
  2. GOAL! Michael Gregoritsch scores for Augsburg. Augsburg 1–0 Freiburg. Assist: Arijon Ibrahimovic.
  3. Yuito Suzuki (Freiburg) has a shot blocked. big chance*
  4. Substitution for Freiburg: Igor Matanovic comes on for Lucas Höler.
  5. Half-time: Augsburg 1–0 Freiburg.
  6. Yellow card for Maximilian Eggestein (Freiburg).
  7. Substitution for Freiburg: Vincenzo Grifo comes on for Derry Scherhant.
  8. Substitution for Freiburg: Keisuke Goto comes on for Yuito Suzuki.
  9. GOAL! Igor Matanovic scores for Freiburg. Augsburg 1–1 Freiburg. Assist: Yannick Engelhardt.
  10. Substitution for Augsburg: Mert Kömür comes on for Anton Kade.
  11. Substitution for Augsburg: Rodrigo Ribeiro comes on for Michael Gregoritsch.
  12. Substitution for Freiburg: Max Rosenfelder comes on for Lukas Kübler.
  13. Yellow card for Matthias Ginter (Freiburg).
  14. Substitution for Augsburg: Alexis Claude-Maurice comes on for Arijon Ibrahimovic.
  15. Substitution for Augsburg: Marius Wolf comes on for Han-Noah Massengo.
  16. Substitution for Freiburg: Cyriaque Irié comes on for Niklas Beste.
  17. GOAL! Cyriaque Irié scores for Freiburg. Augsburg 1–2 Freiburg. Assist: Vincenzo Grifo.
  18. Substitution for Augsburg: Uchenna Ogundu comes on for Yannik Keitel.
  19. Yellow card for Vincenzo Grifo (Freiburg).
  20. Full-time: Augsburg 1–2 Freiburg.
Team comparison

Ratings

6513OVRHome

FC Augsburg

ATT
7515
DEF
6413
FRM
5812
ELO
6012
  • 7515Attack7315
  • 6413Defence7415
  • 5812Form5812
  • 6012Elo strength6814
  • 6513Overall6914
ATTDEFFRMELO
Augsburg Freiburg
6914OVRAway

SC Freiburg

ATT
7315
DEF
7415
FRM
5812
ELO
6814

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Post-match note

Final score: Augsburg 1–2 Freiburg. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a Freiburg win at only 29%, and its favorite was a Augsburg win (51%). Goals: 3 scored against 3.9 expected (Augsburg 1 vs 2.2, Freiburg 2 vs 1.7). Shots: Augsburg 15 (5 on target) vs Freiburg 10 (2); possession 51.5% – 48.5%.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Augsburg (9th, 9 pts from 8) host Freiburg (3rd, 16 pts from 8) in the Bundesliga table as it stands. Augsburg have scored 17 and conceded 13 in 7 Bundesliga games (2.4 and 1.9 per game). Freiburg have scored 16 and conceded 9 in 7 Bundesliga games (2.3 and 1.3 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Augsburg DDLDW, Freiburg WLLLW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Augsburg won 2, Freiburg won 1 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 2.2–1.7. Augsburg are clear favorites: Augsburg 51%, draw 20%, Freiburg 29%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (Augsburg 1501, Freiburg 1570) give Augsburg an expected score of 49%, which disagrees with the goals model.

Pre-match outlook

Augsburg winDrawFreiburg win

Expected goals (model): Augsburg 2.23 · Freiburg 1.67 · most likely score 2–1 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.22 / away 1.36 goals per game from 64 Bundesliga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Augsburg expected score 49%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

AugsburgFreiburg
9thTable position3rd
9 (8)Points (played)16 (8)
2-3-3W-D-L5-1-2
2.43Goals for / game*2.29
1.86Goals against / game*1.29
DDLDWForm, last 5 (all comps)WLLLW
1501Elo rating (pre-match)1570
1.25 / 1.03Attack / defence index1.19 / 0.80
51.5Possession % (this match)48.5
15Shots (this match)10
5Shots on target (this match)2
1Corners (this match)2
7Fouls (this match)11

Table: current Bundesliga standings. *Bundesliga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Augsburg 2 wins · 2 draws · Freiburg 1 win

  • FC Augsburg 2–2 SC Freiburg
  • SC Freiburg 1–3 FC Augsburg
  • FC Augsburg 0–0 SC Freiburg
  • SC Freiburg 3–1 FC Augsburg
  • FC Augsburg 2–1 SC Freiburg