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Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar: Eredivisie, Oct 31, 2026

Eredivisie
HomeAjax Amsterdam7716OVR
1–0FT
AwayAZ Alkmaar7014OVR
  • ⚽ 9' Tolu Arokodare

Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 3:00 PM CT · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Highlights

2D match highlights

Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).

▶ Find official highlights on YouTube

Key moments

  1. GOAL! Tolu Arokodare scores for Ajax. Ajax 1–0 AZ Alkmaar. Assist: Abdellah Ouazane.
  2. Yellow card for Weslley Patati (AZ Alkmaar).
  3. Yellow card for Abdellah Ouazane (Ajax).
  4. Substitution for Ajax: Oscar Gloukh comes on for Julian Brandt.
  5. Yellow card for Mees De Wit (AZ Alkmaar).
  6. Substitution for AZ Alkmaar: Wesley Hoedt comes on for Wouter Goes.
  7. Half-time: Ajax 1–0 AZ Alkmaar.
  8. Substitution for Ajax: Marcos Leonardo comes on for Abdellah Ouazane.
  9. Substitution for Ajax: Yves Bissouma comes on for Davy Klaassen.
  10. Substitution for AZ Alkmaar: Calvin Stengs comes on for Valdemar Byskov.
  11. Substitution for Ajax: Steven Berghuis comes on for Tolu Arokodare.
  12. Substitution for Ajax: Daley Blind comes on for Jorthy Mokio.
  13. Substitution for AZ Alkmaar: Mateo Chávez comes on for Mees De Wit.
  14. Substitution for AZ Alkmaar: Denso Kasius comes on for Elijah Dijkstra.
  15. Substitution for AZ Alkmaar: Bendegúz Kovács comes on for Lewis Schouten.
  16. Mexx Meerdink (AZ Alkmaar) shoots off target. big chance*
  17. Full-time: Ajax 1–0 AZ Alkmaar.
Team comparison

Ratings

7716OVRHome

Ajax Amsterdam

ATT
8016
DEF
7716
FRM
7615
ELO
7315
  • 8016Attack6714
  • 7716Defence7916
  • 7615Form6213
  • 7315Elo strength7014
  • 7716Overall7014
ATTDEFFRMELO
Ajax AZ Alkmaar
7014OVRAway

AZ Alkmaar

ATT
6714
DEF
7916
FRM
6213
ELO
7014

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Post-match note

Final score: Ajax 1–0 AZ Alkmaar. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Ajax win (44%). Goals: 1 scored against 3.4 expected (Ajax 1 vs 1.8, AZ Alkmaar 0 vs 1.6). Shots: Ajax 9 (2 on target) vs AZ Alkmaar 19 (5); possession 48.2% – 51.8%.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Ajax (2nd, 24 pts from 11) host AZ Alkmaar (5th, 20 pts from 11) in the Eredivisie table as it stands. Ajax have scored 29 and conceded 13 in 10 Eredivisie games (2.9 and 1.3 per game). AZ Alkmaar have scored 20 and conceded 12 in 10 Eredivisie games (2.0 and 1.2 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Ajax DLWWW, AZ Alkmaar LWDWL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Ajax won 0, AZ Alkmaar won 3 and 2 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.8–1.6. Ajax are slight favorites: Ajax 44%, draw 22%, AZ Alkmaar 34%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 10% chance. Elo ratings (Ajax 1621, AZ Alkmaar 1590) give Ajax an expected score of 63%, which agrees with the goals model.

Pre-match outlook

Ajax winDrawAZ Alkmaar win

Expected goals (model): Ajax 1.82 · AZ Alkmaar 1.58 · most likely score 1–1 (10%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.80 / away 1.99 goals per game from 93 Eredivisie games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Ajax expected score 63%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

AjaxAZ Alkmaar
2ndTable position5th
24 (11)Points (played)20 (11)
7-3-1W-D-L6-2-3
2.90Goals for / game*2.00
1.30Goals against / game*1.20
DLWWWForm, last 5 (all comps)LWDWL
1621Elo rating (pre-match)1590
1.41 / 0.76Attack / defence index1.04 / 0.72
48.2Possession % (this match)51.8
9Shots (this match)19
2Shots on target (this match)5
1Corners (this match)8
12Fouls (this match)12

Table: current Eredivisie standings. *Eredivisie games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Ajax 0 wins · 2 draws · AZ Alkmaar 3 wins

  • AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Ajax Amsterdam
  • AZ Alkmaar 6–0 Ajax Amsterdam
  • Ajax Amsterdam 0–2 AZ Alkmaar
  • Ajax Amsterdam 2–2 AZ Alkmaar
  • AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Ajax Amsterdam