Nice
- ATT
- 5311
- DEF
- 7014
- FRM
- 7114
- ELO
- 5411
Friday, October 30, 2026 · 1:00 PM CT · Allianz Riviera, Nice, France
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from beIN SPORTS USA on YouTube: “Nice vs Stade Rennes | HIGHLIGHTS Ligue 1 | 10/30/2026 | beIN SPORTS USA”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Nice 5–2 Rennes. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a Nice win at only 33%, and its favorite was a Rennes win (43%). Goals: 7 scored against 3.0 expected (Nice 5 vs 1.4, Rennes 2 vs 1.6). Shots: Nice 17 (8 on target) vs Rennes 18 (9); possession 47.5% – 52.5%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Nice (7th, 14 pts from 9) host Rennes (3rd, 16 pts from 9) in the Ligue 1 table as it stands. Nice have scored 8 and conceded 10 in 8 Ligue 1 games (1.0 and 1.2 per game). Rennes have scored 18 and conceded 14 in 8 Ligue 1 games (2.2 and 1.8 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Nice LWWLW, Rennes WWLDW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Nice won 2, Rennes won 3 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.4–1.6. Rennes are slight favorites: Nice 33%, draw 24%, Rennes 43%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 11% chance. Elo ratings (Nice 1449, Rennes 1607) give Nice an expected score of 36%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Nice 1.40 · Rennes 1.64 · most likely score 1–1 (11%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.62 / away 1.35 goals per game from 72 Ligue 1 games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Nice expected score 36%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Nice | Rennes | |
|---|---|---|
| 7th | Table position | 3rd |
| 14 (9) | Points (played) | 16 (9) |
| 4-2-3 | W-D-L | 5-1-3 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game* | 2.25 |
| 1.25 | Goals against / game* | 1.75 |
| LWWLW | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WWLDW |
| 1449 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1607 |
| 0.76 / 0.88 | Attack / defence index | 1.37 / 1.13 |
| 47.5 | Possession % (this match) | 52.5 |
| 17 | Shots (this match) | 18 |
| 8 | Shots on target (this match) | 9 |
| 4 | Corners (this match) | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls (this match) | 10 |
Table: current Ligue 1 standings. *Ligue 1 games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Nice 2 wins · 0 draws · Rennes 3 wins