Lille
- ATT
- 6213
- DEF
- 8517
- FRM
- 5311
- ELO
- 6714
Friday, October 30, 2026 · 3:05 PM CT · Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille, France
Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).
Official video from beIN SPORTS USA on YouTube: “Lille vs Lens | HIGHLIGHTS Ligue 1 | 10/30/2026 | beIN SPORTS USA”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.
Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.
Final score: Lille 1–0 Lens. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Lille win (47%). Goals: 1 scored against 2.6 expected (Lille 1 vs 1.5, Lens 0 vs 1.1). Shots: Lille 16 (7 on target) vs Lens 5 (3); possession 62.3% – 37.7%.
Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.
Lille (2nd, 18 pts from 9) host Lens (8th, 13 pts from 9) in the Ligue 1 table as it stands. Lille have scored 11 and conceded 6 in 8 Ligue 1 games (1.4 and 0.8 per game). Lens have scored 16 and conceded 12 in 8 Ligue 1 games (2.0 and 1.5 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Lille WLDLD, Lens WLWLW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Lille won 4, Lens won 1 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.5–1.1. Lille are clear favorites: Lille 47%, draw 26%, Lens 27%. The single most likely score is 1–1, but even that only has a 12% chance. Elo ratings (Lille 1566, Lens 1598) give Lille an expected score of 54%, which agrees with the goals model.
Expected goals (model): Lille 1.51 · Lens 1.08 · most likely score 1–1 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.66 / away 1.41 goals per game from 74 Ligue 1 games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Lille expected score 54%. Full method.
Educational analysis, not betting advice.
| Lille | Lens | |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd | Table position | 8th |
| 18 (9) | Points (played) | 13 (9) |
| 5-3-1 | W-D-L | 4-1-4 |
| 1.38 | Goals for / game* | 2.00 |
| 0.75 | Goals against / game* | 1.50 |
| WLDLD | Form, last 5 (all comps) | WLWLW |
| 1566 | Elo rating (pre-match) | 1598 |
| 0.92 / 0.63 | Attack / defence index | 1.22 / 0.98 |
| 62.3 | Possession % (this match) | 37.7 |
| 16 | Shots (this match) | 5 |
| 7 | Shots on target (this match) | 3 |
| 10 | Corners (this match) | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls (this match) | 14 |
Table: current Ligue 1 standings. *Ligue 1 games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).
Lille 4 wins · 0 draws · Lens 1 win