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SV Elversberg vs Mainz: Bundesliga, Oct 30, 2026

Bundesliga
HomeSV Elversberg6012OVR
4–1FT
AwayMainz6513OVR
  • ⚽ 7' Felix Keidel
  • ⚽ 26' Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka
  • ⚽ 45'+1' Maurice Krattenmacher
  • ⚽ 90' Cole Campbell
  • ⚽ 90'+2' Benedict Hollerbach
  • 🟥 90'+5' Stefan Posch

Friday, October 30, 2026 · 2:30 PM CT · URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg, Germany

Highlights

2D match highlights

Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).

▶ Watch official highlights

Official video from Bundesliga on YouTube: “SV ELVERSBERG - MAINZ 05 | Highlights | Matchday 8 – Bundesliga 2026/27”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.

Key moments

  1. Yellow card for Phillipp Mwene (Mainz).
  2. GOAL! Felix Keidel scores for Elversberg. Elversberg 1–0 Mainz.
  3. GOAL! Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka scores for Elversberg. Elversberg 2–0 Mainz. Assist: David Mokwa.
  4. Yellow card for Danny da Costa (Mainz).
  5. GOAL! Maurice Krattenmacher scores for Elversberg. Elversberg 3–0 Mainz.
  6. Half-time: Elversberg 3–0 Mainz.
  7. Substitution for Mainz: Benedict Hollerbach comes on for Nadiem Amiri.
  8. Substitution for Mainz: Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer comes on for Phillip Tietz.
  9. Substitution for Mainz: Silvan Widmer comes on for Phillipp Mwene.
  10. Substitution for Mainz: Lennard Maloney comes on for Paul Nebel.
  11. Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer (Mainz) has the ball in the net, but the goal is ruled out after a video review.
  12. Substitution for Elversberg: Nicholas Mickelson comes on for Lasse Günther.
  13. Yellow card for Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer (Mainz).
  14. Substitution for Elversberg: Frederik Schmahl comes on for Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka.
  15. Substitution for Elversberg: Cole Campbell comes on for Maurice Krattenmacher.
  16. Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer (Mainz) shoots off target. big chance*
  17. Yellow card for Stefan Posch (Mainz).
  18. Substitution for Mainz: Eric Martel comes on for Kaishu Sano.
  19. Substitution for Elversberg: Luca Schnellbacher comes on for David Mokwa.
  20. Substitution for Elversberg: Raif Adam comes on for Lukas Petkov.
  21. GOAL! Cole Campbell scores for Elversberg. Elversberg 4–0 Mainz. Assist: Nicholas Mickelson.
  22. Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer (Mainz) hits the woodwork!
  23. GOAL! Benedict Hollerbach scores for Mainz. Elversberg 4–1 Mainz.
  24. Red card! Stefan Posch (Mainz) is sent off.
  25. Full-time: Elversberg 4–1 Mainz.
Team comparison

Ratings

6012OVRHome

SV Elversberg

ATT
6413
DEF
5912
FRM
5812
ELO
6012
  • 6413Attack7315
  • 5912Defence6413
  • 5812Form5812
  • 6012Elo strength6313
  • 6012Overall6513
ATTDEFFRMELO
Elversberg Mainz
6513OVRAway

Mainz

ATT
7315
DEF
6413
FRM
5812
ELO
6313

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Post-match note

Final score: Elversberg 4–1 Mainz. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Elversberg win (46%). Goals: 5 scored against 4.1 expected (Elversberg 4 vs 2.2, Mainz 1 vs 1.9). Shots: Elversberg 13 (6 on target) vs Mainz 10 (2); possession 54.1% – 45.9%.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Elversberg (7th, 13 pts from 8) host Mainz (8th, 10 pts from 8) in the Bundesliga table as it stands. Elversberg have scored 12 and conceded 15 in 7 Bundesliga games (1.7 and 2.1 per game). Mainz have scored 16 and conceded 13 in 7 Bundesliga games (2.3 and 1.9 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Elversberg WLWLL, Mainz WLWLL. In the last 2 meetings on record, Elversberg won 0, Mainz won 1 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 2.2–1.9. Elversberg are slight favorites: Elversberg 46%, draw 20%, Mainz 34%. The single most likely score is 2–1, but even that only has a 8% chance. Elo ratings (Elversberg 1504, Mainz 1529) give Elversberg an expected score of 55%, which agrees with the goals model.

Pre-match outlook

Elversberg winDrawMainz win

Expected goals (model): Elversberg 2.20 · Mainz 1.87 · most likely score 2–1 (8%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 2.19 / away 1.37 goals per game from 63 Bundesliga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Elversberg expected score 55%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

ElversbergMainz
7thTable position8th
13 (8)Points (played)10 (8)
4-1-3W-D-L3-1-4
1.71Goals for / game*2.29
2.14Goals against / game*1.86
WLWLLForm, last 5 (all comps)WLWLL
1504Elo rating (pre-match)1529
0.98 / 1.14Attack / defence index1.20 / 1.03
54.1Possession % (this match)45.9
13Shots (this match)10
6Shots on target (this match)2
5Corners (this match)11
8Fouls (this match)22

Table: current Bundesliga standings. *Bundesliga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Elversberg 0 wins · 1 draw · Mainz 1 win

  • SV Elversberg 0–1 Mainz
  • SV Elversberg 2–2 Mainz