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Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: Primeira Liga, Oct 30, 2026

Primeira Liga
HomeCasa Pia5211OVR
0–2FT
AwaySporting CP7515OVR
  • ⚽ 13' Pedro Lima
  • ⚽ 90'+4' Geny Catamo

Friday, October 30, 2026 · 3:15 PM CT · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior, Portugal

Highlights

2D match highlights

Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).

▶ Find official highlights on YouTube

Key moments

  1. Yellow card for David Sousa (Casa Pia).
  2. GOAL! Pedro Lima scores for Sporting. Casa Pia 0–1 Sporting. Assist: Iván Fresneda.
  3. Yellow card for Kaly (Casa Pia).
  4. Yellow card for Silas Andersen (Sporting).
  5. Substitution for Casa Pia: Jeremy Livolant comes on for Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri.
  6. Half-time: Casa Pia 0–1 Sporting.
  7. Substitution for Sporting: Geny Catamo comes on for Luis Guilherme.
  8. Substitution for Sporting: Flávio Gonçalves comes on for Nestory Irankunda.
  9. Substitution for Sporting: Issa Doumbia comes on for Silas Andersen.
  10. Gonçalo Inácio (Sporting) shoots off target. big chance*
  11. Substitution for Casa Pia: Gabi Pereira comes on for Lawrence Ofori.
  12. Substitution for Casa Pia: Abdu Dafe comes on for Benjamin Pauwels.
  13. Substitution for Sporting: João Simões comes on for Pedro Lima.
  14. Substitution for Casa Pia: Alassana Jatta comes on for Henrique Araújo.
  15. Substitution for Casa Pia: Cassiano comes on for David Sousa.
  16. Substitution for Sporting: Fotis Ioannidis comes on for Luis Suárez.
  17. Yellow card for Maxi Araújo (Sporting).
  18. GOAL! Geny Catamo scores for Sporting. Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting. Assist: Iván Fresneda.
  19. Full-time: Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting.
Team comparison

Ratings

5211OVRHome

Casa Pia

ATT
398
DEF
5411
FRM
7114
ELO
4810
  • 398Attack8317
  • 5411Defence6914
  • 7114Form6213
  • 4810Elo strength8617
  • 5211Overall7515
ATTDEFFRMELO
Casa Pia Sporting
7515OVRAway

Sporting CP

ATT
8317
DEF
6914
FRM
6213
ELO
8617

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Post-match note

Final score: Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting. That matched the model's most likely outcome, a Sporting win (83%). Goals: 2 scored against 3.5 expected (Casa Pia 0 vs 0.6, Sporting 2 vs 2.9). Shots: Casa Pia 12 (2 on target) vs Sporting 23 (11); possession 44.8% – 55.2%.

Who wins?

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Pre-game analysis

Casa Pia (17th, 7 pts from 10) host Sporting (3rd, 21 pts from 10) in the Primeira Liga table as it stands. Casa Pia have scored 5 and conceded 17 in 9 Primeira Liga games (0.6 and 1.9 per game). Sporting have scored 21 and conceded 11 in 9 Primeira Liga games (2.3 and 1.2 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Casa Pia LWLWW, Sporting DWWLL. In the last 5 meetings on record, Casa Pia won 0, Sporting won 5 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 0.6–2.9. Sporting are clear favorites: Casa Pia 6%, draw 12%, Sporting 83%. The single most likely score is 0–2, but even that only has a 12% chance. Elo ratings (Casa Pia 1388, Sporting 1730) give Casa Pia an expected score of 16%, which agrees with the goals model.

Pre-match outlook

Casa Pia winDrawSporting win

Expected goals (model): Casa Pia 0.65 · Sporting 2.88 · most likely score 0–2 (12%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.27 / away 1.47 goals per game from 81 Primeira Liga games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Casa Pia expected score 16%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

Casa PiaSporting
17thTable position3rd
7 (10)Points (played)21 (10)
2-1-7W-D-L6-3-1
0.56Goals for / game*2.33
1.89Goals against / game*1.22
LWLWWForm, last 5 (all comps)DWWLL
1388Elo rating (pre-match)1730
0.55 / 1.28Attack / defence index1.53 / 0.92
44.8Possession % (this match)55.2
12Shots (this match)23
2Shots on target (this match)11
3Corners (this match)4
11Fouls (this match)15

Table: current Primeira Liga standings. *Primeira Liga games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Casa Pia 0 wins · 0 draws · Sporting 5 wins

  • Sporting CP 3–0 Casa Pia
  • Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP
  • Casa Pia 1–3 Sporting CP
  • Sporting CP 2–0 Casa Pia
  • Sporting CP 8–0 Casa Pia