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Fiorentina vs Atalanta: Serie A, Oct 29, 2026

Serie A
HomeFiorentina5311OVR
2–2FT
AwayAtalanta6413OVR
  • ⚽ 41' Charles De Ketelaere
  • ⚽ 53' Alieu Njie
  • ⚽ 61' João Mário
  • ⚽ 74' Nicola Zalewski

Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 2:45 PM CT · Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze, Italy

Highlights

2D match highlights

Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).

▶ Watch official highlights

Official video from Serie A on YouTube: “Wild Second Half In Florence! | FIORENTINA-ATALANTA | HIGHLIGHTS | Serie A 2026/27”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.

Key moments

  1. Substitution for Atalanta: Giorgio Scalvini comes on for Thomas Kristensen.
  2. Yellow card for Eljif Elmas (Atalanta).
  3. Yellow card for Viery (Fiorentina).
  4. GOAL! Charles De Ketelaere scores for Atalanta. Fiorentina 0–1 Atalanta. Assist: Nicola Zalewski.
  5. Mateo Pellegrino (Fiorentina) shoots off target. big chance*
  6. Half-time: Fiorentina 0–1 Atalanta.
  7. Substitution for Fiorentina: Christ Inao Oulaï comes on for Nicolò Fagioli.
  8. Yellow card for Mateo Pellegrino (Fiorentina).
  9. GOAL! Alieu Njie scores for Fiorentina. Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta. Assist: Álex Jiménez.
  10. Substitution for Atalanta: Mario Pasalic comes on for Gianluca Gaetano.
  11. Substitution for Atalanta: Jon Rowe comes on for Eljif Elmas.
  12. GOAL! João Mário scores for Fiorentina. Fiorentina 2–1 Atalanta. Assist: Alieu Njie.
  13. Substitution for Fiorentina: Wilfried Gnonto comes on for Alieu Njie.
  14. GOAL! Nicola Zalewski scores for Atalanta. Fiorentina 2–2 Atalanta. Assist: Charles De Ketelaere.
  15. Yellow card for Wilfried Gnonto (Fiorentina).
  16. Yellow card for Relja Obric (Atalanta).
  17. Substitution for Atalanta: Kamaldeen Sulemana comes on for Nicola Zalewski.
  18. Substitution for Fiorentina: Pedro Gonçalves comes on for Franco Mastantuono.
  19. Substitution for Fiorentina: Beto comes on for Mateo Pellegrino.
  20. Full-time: Fiorentina 2–2 Atalanta.
Team comparison

Ratings

5311OVRHome

Fiorentina

ATT
5511
DEF
5110
FRM
4810
ELO
5812
  • 5511Attack6814
  • 5110Defence5912
  • 4810Form6213
  • 5812Elo strength6613
  • 5311Overall6413
ATTDEFFRMELO
Fiorentina Atalanta
6413OVRAway

Atalanta

ATT
6814
DEF
5912
FRM
6213
ELO
6613

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Post-match note

Final score: Fiorentina 2–2 Atalanta. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a draw at only 20%, and its favorite was an Atalanta win (56%). Goals: 4 scored against 3.7 expected (Fiorentina 2 vs 1.5, Atalanta 2 vs 2.3). Shots: Fiorentina 26 (4 on target) vs Atalanta 10 (5); possession 50.2% – 49.8%.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Fiorentina (17th, 5 pts from 9) host Atalanta (12th, 11 pts from 9) in the Serie A table as it stands. Fiorentina have scored 9 and conceded 19 in 8 Serie A games (1.1 and 2.4 per game). Atalanta have scored 14 and conceded 15 in 8 Serie A games (1.8 and 1.9 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Fiorentina DWLLL, Atalanta WWLLD. In the last 5 meetings on record, Fiorentina won 2, Atalanta won 2 and 1 was drawn. The goals model expects about 1.5–2.3. Atalanta are clear favorites: Fiorentina 24%, draw 20%, Atalanta 56%. The single most likely score is 1–2, but even that only has a 9% chance. Elo ratings (Fiorentina 1481, Atalanta 1555) give Fiorentina an expected score of 48%, which agrees with the goals model.

Pre-match outlook

Fiorentina winDrawAtalanta win

Expected goals (model): Fiorentina 1.45 · Atalanta 2.28 · most likely score 1–2 (9%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.61 / away 1.54 goals per game from 89 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Fiorentina expected score 48%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

FiorentinaAtalanta
17thTable position12th
5 (9)Points (played)11 (9)
1-2-6W-D-L3-2-4
1.12Goals for / game*1.75
2.38Goals against / game*1.88
DWLLLForm, last 5 (all comps)WWLLD
1481Elo rating (pre-match)1555
0.79 / 1.37Attack / defence index1.08 / 1.14
50.2Possession % (this match)49.8
26Shots (this match)10
4Shots on target (this match)5
8Corners (this match)2
10Fouls (this match)13

Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Fiorentina 2 wins · 1 draw · Atalanta 2 wins

  • Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta
  • Atalanta 2–0 Fiorentina
  • Fiorentina 1–0 Atalanta
  • Atalanta 3–2 Fiorentina
  • Atalanta 2–3 Fiorentina