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AC Milan vs Bologna: Serie A, Oct 28, 2026

Serie A
HomeAC Milan7615OVR
2–4FT
AwayBologna6213OVR
  • ⚽ 8' Samuel Mbangula
  • ⚽ 14' Alphadjo Cissè
  • ⚽ 27' Alphadjo Cissè
  • ⚽ 60' Davide Bartesaghi (og)
  • ⚽ 62' Samuel Mbangula
  • ⚽ 86' Samuel Mbangula

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 12:30 PM CT · San Siro, Milano, Italy

Highlights

2D match highlights

Animated reconstruction from match data, not real footage. Player movement between events is generated; goals, shots, cards, substitutions and their minutes come from the ESPN match feed (shot positions included).

▶ Watch official highlights

Official video from Serie A on YouTube: “MILAN-BOLOGNA 2-4 | EXTENDED HIGHLIGHTS | SERIE A 2026/27”. May be geo-restricted in some countries.

Key moments

  1. GOAL! Samuel Mbangula scores for Bologna. Milan 0–1 Bologna. Assist: Nadir Zortea.
  2. GOAL! Alphadjo Cissè scores for Milan. Milan 1–1 Bologna.
  3. GOAL! Alphadjo Cissè scores for Milan. Milan 2–1 Bologna. Assist: Fikayo Tomori.
  4. Half-time: Milan 2–1 Bologna.
  5. Substitution for Milan: Luka Modric comes on for Fikayo Tomori.
  6. Substitution for Milan: Sankhoun Diawara comes on for Pervis Estupiñán.
  7. Substitution for Milan: Christian Pulisic comes on for Omari Hutchinson.
  8. Substitution for Bologna: Martin Vitík comes on for Matteo Darmian.
  9. Substitution for Bologna: Juan Miranda comes on for Rahim Alhassane.
  10. Substitution for Bologna: Nicolò Cambiaghi comes on for Federico Bernardeschi.
  11. Own goal by Davide Bartesaghi (Bologna). Milan 2–2 Bologna.
  12. GOAL! Samuel Mbangula scores for Bologna. Milan 2–3 Bologna. Assist: Juan Miranda.
  13. Substitution for Milan: Francesco Camarda comes on for Davide Bartesaghi.
  14. Substitution for Bologna: Torbjørn Heggem comes on for Arthur Theate.
  15. Yellow card for Tommaso Pobega (Bologna).
  16. Substitution for Bologna: Eivind Helland comes on for Nicoló Casale.
  17. Francesco Camarda (Milan) shoots off target. big chance*
  18. Yellow card for Torbjørn Heggem (Bologna).
  19. GOAL! Samuel Mbangula scores for Bologna. Milan 2–4 Bologna. Assist: Jens Odgaard.
  20. Substitution for Milan: Christian Comotto comes on for Gonçalo Ramos.
  21. Full-time: Milan 2–4 Bologna.
Team comparison

Ratings

7615OVRHome

AC Milan

ATT
7315
DEF
8217
FRM
7615
ELO
7315
  • 7315Attack5211
  • 8217Defence7215
  • 7615Form6213
  • 7315Elo strength6313
  • 7615Overall6213
ATTDEFFRMELO
Milan Bologna
6213OVRAway

Bologna

ATT
5211
DEF
7215
FRM
6213
ELO
6313

Ratings are our own 0-99 scale, built only from results data: ATT = 65 + 30 × log2(attack index), DEF = 65 − 30 × log2(defence index) (index 1.00 = competition average), FRM = 30 + 69 × points from the last 5 games ÷ 15, ELO = 60 + (Elo − 1500) ÷ 9, OVR = 30% ATT + 30% DEF + 20% FRM + 20% ELO. Each is capped to 1-99. The Manager style shows the same numbers on a 1-20 scale (rating ÷ 99 × 20). Ratings use only games before kick-off. Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Post-match note

Final score: Milan 2–4 Bologna. By the model's pre-match numbers that was a surprise. It rated a Bologna win at only 17%, and its favorite was a Milan win (59%). Goals: 6 scored against 2.4 expected (Milan 2 vs 1.7, Bologna 4 vs 0.8). Shots: Milan 8 (3 on target) vs Bologna 9 (5); possession 66.4% – 33.6%.

Who wins?

Pick before kick-off. Just for fun: no account, no money, saved only in this browser.

Pre-game analysis

Milan (4th, 21 pts from 10) host Bologna (9th, 14 pts from 10) in the Serie A table as it stands. Milan have scored 16 and conceded 7 in 8 Serie A games (2.0 and 0.9 per game). Bologna have scored 8 and conceded 10 in 8 Serie A games (1.0 and 1.2 per game). Recent form across all competitions (oldest to newest): Milan DWWLW, Bologna LDWLW. In the last 5 meetings on record, Milan won 3, Bologna won 2 and 0 were drawn. The goals model expects about 1.7–0.8. Milan are clear favorites: Milan 59%, draw 24%, Bologna 17%. The single most likely score is 1–0, but even that only has a 15% chance. Elo ratings (Milan 1615, Bologna 1528) give Milan an expected score of 70%, which agrees with the goals model.

Pre-match outlook

Milan winDrawBologna win

Expected goals (model): Milan 1.65 · Bologna 0.76 · most likely score 1–0 (15%).
Method: Poisson. Baseline home 1.60 / away 1.52 goals per game from 83 Serie A games (this season). Expected goals = baseline × attack × opponent defence. Elo cross-check: Milan expected score 70%. Full method.

Educational analysis, not betting advice.

Key numbers

MilanBologna
4thTable position9th
21 (10)Points (played)14 (10)
6-3-1W-D-L4-2-4
2.00Goals for / game*1.00
0.88Goals against / game*1.25
DWWLWForm, last 5 (all comps)LDWLW
1615Elo rating (pre-match)1528
1.20 / 0.68Attack / defence index0.74 / 0.86
66.4Possession % (this match)33.6
8Shots (this match)9
3Shots on target (this match)5
2Corners (this match)3
10Fouls (this match)16

Table: current Serie A standings. *Serie A games this season before kick-off. Index: 1.00 = competition average (attack: higher is better; defence: lower is better).

Head-to-head

Milan 3 wins · 0 draws · Bologna 2 wins

  • Bologna 0–3 AC Milan
  • AC Milan 1–0 Bologna
  • AC Milan 0–1 Bologna
  • AC Milan 3–1 Bologna
  • Bologna 2–1 AC Milan